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Hawks vs Bulls prediction NBA · Friday, November 13

Fri, Nov 13 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

122-114

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

75% win ATLwin CHI 25%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin8.3

Projected total236

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Friday, November 13 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 75% chance to win and projects a 122-114 score (Hawks – Bulls), about 236 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Bulls L3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Bulls 114 – 122 Hawks, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / ATL +2.7 per game

-9.9

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-0.7

Expected marginfor Bulls

-8.3

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Hawks win by 10+

45%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLCHI

119.0

Points scored / game

115.6

115.8

Points allowed / game

124.1

46.9 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

34.8 %

3-point %

27.6 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

72.8 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

44.8

32.2

Assists / game

24.4

10.2

Steals / game

9.0

3.6

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 75% · CHI 25%

ESPN BPI

ATL 76% · CHI 24%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		CHI
2-3	Record	1-4
119.0	Points scored / game	115.6
115.8	Points allowed / game	124.1
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
L3	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.