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Hawks vs Bulls prediction NBA · Thursday, February 25

Thu, Feb 25 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
122-114
Chicago Bulls
Chicago Bulls
1-4 · home
75% win ATLwin CHI 25%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin8.3
Projected total236
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Thursday, February 25 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 75% chance to win and projects a 122-114 score (Hawks – Bulls), about 236 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Bulls L3, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Bulls 114 – 122 Hawks, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hawks' defense allows clearly fewer points (115.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / ATL +2.7 per game
-9.9
Home-court advantageBulls at home
+2.3
InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
-0.7
Expected marginfor Bulls
-8.3

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+
7%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
25%
Hawks win by 10+
45%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLCHI
119.0
Points scored / game
115.6
115.8
Points allowed / game
124.1
46.9 %
Field goal %
42.1 %
34.8 %
3-point %
27.6 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
42.0
72.8 %
Free throw %
78.6 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
44.8
32.2
Assists / game
24.4
10.2
Steals / game
9.0
3.6
Blocks / game
4.8
14.0
Turnovers / game
17.8

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Bulls
Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game
Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists
Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
CHI
LTOR135-92WMIL132-125LWSH124-120LBOS134-99LNY133-127

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 13ATLupcomingCHIDec 29CHIupcomingATLFeb 25ATLthis gameCHIMar 3CHIupcomingATL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 75% · CHI 25%
ESPN BPI
ATL 72% · CHI 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATLCHI
2-3Record1-4
119.0Points scored / game115.6
115.8Points allowed / game124.1
+2.7Adjusted margin / game-7.2
L3Current streakL3
2-3Last 10 games1-4
2-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season31-51 (-5.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Chicago Bulls Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut
Nic Claxton COut
Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day
Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.