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Hawks vs Magic prediction NBA · Sunday, February 28

Sun, Feb 28 · 4:30 PM ETKia Center

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

118-112

Orlando Magic

1-3 · home

67% win ATLwin ORL 33%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin5.4

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Orlando Magic (1-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Sunday, February 28 at 4:30 PM ET at Kia Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 67% chance to win and projects a 118-112 score (Hawks – Magic), about 230 total points. This season, the Magic are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Magic and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Magic L1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic) and Noah Penda (Magic)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Magic 112 – 118 Hawks, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-2.3 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Magic

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ORL -2.3 / ATL +2.7 per game

-5.0

Home-court advantageMagic at home

+2.3

InjuriesORL: 5 out, 0 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Magic

-5.4

Scenarios

Magic win by 10+

11%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Hawks win by 10+

35%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLORL

119.0

Points scored / game

113.6

115.8

Points allowed / game

116.2

46.9 %

Field goal %

44.2 %

34.8 %

3-point %

31.4 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

72.8 %

Free throw %

75.0 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

41.3

32.2

Assists / game

26.0

10.2

Steals / game

7.8

3.6

Blocks / game

4.5

14.0

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

Head-to-head

ATL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 67% · ORL 33%

ESPN BPI

ATL 53% · ORL 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		ORL
2-3	Record	1-3
119.0	Points scored / game	113.6
115.8	Points allowed / game	116.2
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-2.3
L3	Current streak	L1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	45-37 (+0.6)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.