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Magic vs Hawks prediction NBA · Saturday, December 19

Sat, Dec 19 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena

Orlando Magic

1-3 · away

Projected score

108-120

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

18% win ORLwin ATL 82%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin11.6

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Orlando Magic (1-3) on Saturday, December 19 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 82% chance to win and projects a 108-120 score (Magic – Hawks), about 228 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Magic are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 1-3 for the Magic (current streaks: Hawks L3, Magic L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Magic played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jonathan Isaac (Magic), Jalen Suggs (Magic), Paolo Banchero (Magic), Noah Penda (Magic), Izaiyah Nelson (Magic) and Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks start with a clear edge. The model projects Hawks 120 – 108 Magic, a margin of about 11.6 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Magic played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Magic will be without Jonathan Isaac or Jalen Suggs (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -2.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Magic need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / ORL -2.3 per game

+5.0

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backMagic played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · ORL: 5 out, 0 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Hawks

+11.6

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

55%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Magic win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

ORLATL

113.6

Points scored / game

119.0

116.2

Points allowed / game

115.8

44.2 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

31.4 %

3-point %

34.8 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

75.0 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

41.3

Rebounds / game

41.4

26.0

Assists / game

32.2

7.8

Steals / game

10.2

4.5

Blocks / game

3.6

17.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Magic

Franz WagnerF · #2219.5pts / game

Franz WagnerF · #226.0assists

Wendell Carter Jr.C · #349.0rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ORL

136-115L

132-125L

115-93W

111-102L

129-99

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

ATL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ORL 18% · ATL 82%

ESPN BPI

ORL 34% · ATL 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ORL		ATL
1-3	Record	2-3
113.6	Points scored / game	119.0
116.2	Points allowed / game	115.8
-2.3	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
L1	Current streak	L3
1-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
45-37 (+0.6)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Magic

Jonathan Isaac FOut

Jalen Suggs GOut

Paolo Banchero FOut

Noah Penda FOut

Izaiyah Nelson FOut

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.