Pacers vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Thursday, February 18
At a glance
The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Thursday, February 18 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 86% chance to win and projects a 107-121 score (Pacers – Trail Blazers), about 228 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 18% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Robert Williams III (Trail Blazers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Trail Blazers dominate this matchup. The model projects Trail Blazers 121 – 107 Pacers, a margin of about 13.4 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Trail Blazers will be without Robert Williams III or Chris Youngblood (and 1 other). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Trail Blazers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
INDPOR
Players to watch
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsTrail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsRecent form
IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| IND | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-0 |
| 113.2 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 118.8 | Points allowed / game | 114.7 |
| -4.7 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.0 |
| L2 | Current streak | W3 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-0 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 19-63 (-8.0) | Last season | 42-40 (-0.3) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pacers
Injury report Trail Blazers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.