Trail Blazers vs Pacers prediction NBA · Thursday, December 17
At a glance
The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Thursday, December 17 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 77% chance to win and projects a 119-109 score (Trail Blazers – Pacers), about 228 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Pacers L2, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers), Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Trail Blazers start with a clear edge. The model projects Pacers 109 – 119 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 9.4 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Trail Blazers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
PORIND
Players to watch
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game
Ja MorantG · #16.3assists
Donovan ClinganC · #239.3reboundsPacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0reboundsRecent form
POR
110-98L
128-118W
124-83W128-120W
136-129IND
123-120L
121-105W
136-109L
110-102L
114-109
POR
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| POR | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | Record | 2-3 |
| 118.2 | Points scored / game | 113.2 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 118.8 |
| +3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.7 |
| W3 | Current streak | L2 |
| 3-0 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 2-0 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 42-40 (-0.3) | Last season | 19-63 (-8.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Trail Blazers
Injury report Pacers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.