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Nuggets vs Lakers prediction NBA · Friday, February 12

Fri, Feb 12 · 10:30 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · ESPN, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

112-118

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

31% win DENwin LAL 69%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin6.2

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Friday, February 12 at 10:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 69% chance to win and projects a 112-118 score (Nuggets – Lakers), about 230 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Lakers W1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Lakers, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Lakers 118 – 112 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / DEN +2.6 per game

+0.9

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backNuggets played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.5

Expected marginfor Lakers

+6.2

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Nuggets win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

DENLAL

119.2

Points scored / game

118.4

116.2

Points allowed / game

114.3

45.8 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

32.8 %

3-point %

39.2 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

79.6 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

38.0

26.0

Assists / game

24.0

10.0

Steals / game

10.8

4.8

Blocks / game

5.8

15.3

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 31% · LAL 69%

ESPN BPI

DEN 41% · LAL 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		LAL
2-2	Record	4-1
119.2	Points scored / game	118.4
116.2	Points allowed / game	114.3
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
W1	Current streak	W1
2-2	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.