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Nuggets vs Lakers prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Prime Video, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

114-118

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

36% win DENwin LAL 64%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin4.6

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Wednesday, December 23 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 64% chance to win and projects a 114-118 score (Nuggets – Lakers), about 232 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Lakers W1, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Lakers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Lakers 118 – 114 Nuggets, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / DEN +2.6 per game

+0.9

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.5

Expected marginfor Lakers

+4.6

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

33%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Nuggets win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

DENLAL

119.2

Points scored / game

118.4

116.2

Points allowed / game

114.3

45.8 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

32.8 %

3-point %

39.2 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

79.6 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

38.0

26.0

Assists / game

24.0

10.0

Steals / game

10.8

4.8

Blocks / game

5.8

15.3

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 36% · LAL 64%

ESPN BPI

DEN 42% · LAL 58%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		LAL
2-2	Record	4-1
119.2	Points scored / game	118.4
116.2	Points allowed / game	114.3
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
W1	Current streak	W1
2-2	Last 10 games	4-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.