Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Lakers vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Saturday, December 19

Sat, Dec 19 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena · NBA TV, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

114-116

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

45% win LALwin DEN 55%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin1.6

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Saturday, December 19 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 55% chance to win and projects a 114-116 score (Lakers – Nuggets), about 230 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Lakers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nuggets 116 – 114 Lakers, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / LAL +3.5 per game

-0.9

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

Back-to-backLakers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable

-1.5

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+1.6

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

25%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Lakers win by 10+

18%

Stat comparison Current season

LALDEN

118.4

Points scored / game

119.2

114.3

Points allowed / game

116.2

52.9 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

39.2 %

3-point %

32.8 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

79.1 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

44.5

24.0

Assists / game

26.0

10.8

Steals / game

10.0

5.8

Blocks / game

4.8

16.6

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 45% · DEN 55%

ESPN BPI

LAL 46% · DEN 54%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		DEN
4-1	Record	2-2
118.4	Points scored / game	119.2
114.3	Points allowed / game	116.2
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	2-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.