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Nuggets vs Celtics prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 9

Tue, Feb 9 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

110-119

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

24% win DENwin BOS 76%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin9.0

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Tuesday, February 9 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 76% chance to win and projects a 110-119 score (Nuggets – Celtics), about 228 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Celtics W3, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Celtics dominate this matchup. The model projects Celtics 119 – 110 Nuggets, a margin of about 9.0 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / DEN +2.6 per game

+4.0

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Celtics

+9.0

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

47%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Nuggets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DENBOS

119.2

Points scored / game

116.1

116.2

Points allowed / game

108.3

45.8 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

32.8 %

3-point %

38.6 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

79.6 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

44.3

26.0

Assists / game

27.8

10.0

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

3.8

15.3

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 24% · BOS 76%

ESPN BPI

DEN 36% · BOS 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		BOS
2-2	Record	3-1
119.2	Points scored / game	116.1
116.2	Points allowed / game	108.3
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W1	Current streak	W3
2-2	Last 10 games	3-1
1-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.