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Celtics vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 18

Wed, Nov 18 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

116-112

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

64% win BOSwin DEN 36%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin4.4

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Wednesday, November 18 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 64% chance to win and projects a 116-112 score (Celtics – Nuggets), about 228 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Celtics, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 112 – 116 Celtics, a margin of about 4.4 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / BOS +6.6 per game

-4.0

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-4.4

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

12%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Celtics win by 10+

33%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSDEN

116.1

Points scored / game

119.2

108.3

Points allowed / game

116.2

46.5 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

38.6 %

3-point %

32.8 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

76.0 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

44.5

27.8

Assists / game

26.0

9.0

Steals / game

10.0

3.8

Blocks / game

4.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 64% · DEN 36%

ESPN BPI

BOS 54% · DEN 46%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		DEN
3-1	Record	2-2
116.1	Points scored / game	119.2
108.3	Points allowed / game	116.2
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
W3	Current streak	W1
3-1	Last 10 games	2-2
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.