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Pelicans vs Pacers prediction NBA · Monday, February 8

Mon, Feb 8 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND, GCSEN, Pelicans.com

New Orleans Pelicans

0-4 · away

Projected score

117-115

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

53% win NOwin IND 47%

FavoriteNO

Projected margin1.1

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Monday, February 8 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pelicans a 53% chance to win and projects a 117-115 score (Pelicans – Pacers), about 232 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Pacers L2, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Yves Missi (Pelicans), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Pacers 115 – 117 Pelicans, a margin of about 1.1 points in favor of the Pelicans and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others). The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / NO -4.1 per game

-0.7

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 4 out, 1 questionable · NO: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Pacers

-1.1

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

19%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pelicans win by 10+

24%

Stat comparison Current season

NOIND

115.7

Points scored / game

113.2

120.5

Points allowed / game

118.8

46.5 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

29.0 %

3-point %

31.2 %

31.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

83.6 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

44.0

23.5

Assists / game

29.4

12.3

Steals / game

6.4

4.8

Blocks / game

4.8

16.5

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Pelicans

Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game

Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists

Derik QueenC · #229.2rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

107-106L

123-120L

120-119L

141-135 OTL DEN

104-91

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

IND lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NO 53% · IND 47%

ESPN BPI

NO 27% · IND 73%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

NO		IND
0-4	Record	2-3
115.7	Points scored / game	113.2
120.5	Points allowed / game	118.8
-4.1	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L4	Current streak	L2
0-4	Last 10 games	2-3
0-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
26-56 (-4.5)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pelicans

Yves Missi COut

Jordan Poole GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.