Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Trail Blazers vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Saturday, February 6

Sat, Feb 6 · 5:30 PM ETFedExForum · Prime Video

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · away

Projected score

117-116

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · home

51% win PORwin MEM 49%

FavoritePOR

Projected margin0.3

Projected total232

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) host the Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) on Saturday, February 6 at 5:30 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 51% chance to win and projects a 117-116 score (Trail Blazers – Grizzlies), about 232 total points. This season, the Grizzlies are 1-0 at home and the Trail Blazers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-0 for the Grizzlies and 3-0 for the Trail Blazers (current streaks: Grizzlies W4, Trail Blazers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Grizzlies 116 – 117 Trail Blazers, a margin of about 0.3 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-1.8 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Grizzlies

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MEM -1.8 / POR +3.0 per game

-4.7

Home-court advantageGrizzlies at home

+2.3

InjuriesMEM: 0 out, 0 questionable · POR: 2 out, 1 questionable

+2.1

Expected marginfor Grizzlies

-0.3

Scenarios

Grizzlies win by 10+

21%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Trail Blazers win by 10+

22%

Stat comparison Current season

PORMEM

118.2

Points scored / game

115.2

114.7

Points allowed / game

117.3

51.1 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

38.9 %

3-point %

39.1 %

43.7

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

70.8 %

Free throw %

82.8 %

46.3

Rebounds / game

50.0

30.7

Assists / game

25.0

8.3

Steals / game

6.3

2.7

Blocks / game

6.3

13.3

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

POR 51% · MEM 49%

ESPN BPI

POR 62% · MEM 38%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

POR		MEM
3-0	Record	4-0
118.2	Points scored / game	115.2
114.7	Points allowed / game	117.3
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-1.8
W3	Current streak	W4
3-0	Last 10 games	4-0
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
42-40 (-0.3)	Last season	25-57 (-6.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.