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Grizzlies vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Thursday, October 29

Thu, Oct 29 · 10:00 PM ETModa Center · NBA League Pass, DAZN MEM, KUNP 16, BlazerVision

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

113-118

Portland Trail Blazers

3-0 · home

35% win MEMwin POR 65%

FavoritePOR

Projected margin4.9

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers (3-0) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Thursday, October 29 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Trail Blazers a 65% chance to win and projects a 113-118 score (Grizzlies – Trail Blazers), about 232 total points. This season, the Trail Blazers are 1-0 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Trail Blazers and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Trail Blazers W3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Chris Youngblood (Trail Blazers) and Shaedon Sharpe (Trail Blazers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Trail Blazers, but the Grizzlies have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Trail Blazers 118 – 113 Grizzlies, a margin of about 4.9 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Trail Blazers will be without Chris Youngblood or Shaedon Sharpe. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Trail Blazers' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR +3.0 / MEM -1.8 per game

+4.7

Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPOR: 2 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-2.1

Expected marginfor Trail Blazers

+4.9

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+

34%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

29%

Grizzlies win by 10+

12%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMPOR

115.2

Points scored / game

118.2

117.3

Points allowed / game

114.7

45.3 %

Field goal %

51.1 %

39.1 %

3-point %

38.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

43.7

82.8 %

Free throw %

70.8 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

46.3

25.0

Assists / game

30.7

6.3

Steals / game

8.3

6.3

Blocks / game

2.7

15.5

Turnovers / game

13.3

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Trail Blazers

Deni AvdijaF · #822.3pts / game

Ja MorantG · #16.3assists

Donovan ClinganC · #239.3rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

POR

110-98L

128-118W

124-83W

128-120W

136-129

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 35% · POR 65%

ESPN BPI

MEM 29% · POR 71%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MEM		POR
4-0	Record	3-0
115.2	Points scored / game	118.2
117.3	Points allowed / game	114.7
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
W4	Current streak	W3
4-0	Last 10 games	3-0
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-0 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	42-40 (-0.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Trail Blazers

Chris Youngblood GOut

Shaedon Sharpe GOut

Robert Williams III CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.