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Pistons vs 76ers prediction NBA · Friday, February 5

Fri, Feb 5 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · Prime Video

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · away

Projected score

115-109

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · home

69% win DETwin PHI 31%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin6.2

Projected total223

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Detroit Pistons (4-1) on Friday, February 5 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 69% chance to win and projects a 115-109 score (Pistons – 76ers), about 223 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Pistons are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 4-1 for the Pistons (current streaks: 76ers W1, Pistons W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jalen Duren (Pistons), Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers) and Ariel Hukporti (76ers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pistons are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects 76ers 109 – 115 Pistons, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others). The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren.

The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs +6.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / DET +6.5 per game

-5.8

Home-court advantage76ers at home

+2.3

InjuriesPHI: 4 out, 1 questionable · DET: 1 out, 1 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor 76ers

-6.2

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Pistons win by 10+

38%

Stat comparison Current season

DETPHI

115.4

Points scored / game

114.4

107.8

Points allowed / game

113.5

45.9 %

Field goal %

42.8 %

37.9 %

3-point %

32.6 %

36.4

3-pointers attempted / game

35.0

74.4 %

Free throw %

77.5 %

46.8

Rebounds / game

42.2

27.0

Assists / game

24.6

8.0

Steals / game

9.8

7.2

Blocks / game

5.6

15.6

Turnovers / game

12.6

Players to watch

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

Head-to-head

DET lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DET 69% · PHI 31%

ESPN BPI

DET 50% · PHI 50%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

DET		PHI
4-1	Record	4-1
115.4	Points scored / game	114.4
107.8	Points allowed / game	113.5
+6.5	Adjusted margin / game	+0.7
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
60-22 (+8.2)	Last season	45-37 (-0.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.