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76ers vs Pistons prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 7:00 PM ETLittle Caesars Arena · ESPN

Philadelphia 76ers

4-1 · away

Projected score

107-117

Detroit Pistons

4-1 · home

22% win PHIwin DET 78%

FavoriteDET

Projected margin9.9

Projected total224

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Detroit Pistons (4-1) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Wednesday, November 4 at 7:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pistons a 78% chance to win and projects a 107-117 score (76ers – Pistons), about 224 total points. This season, the Pistons are 2-0 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Pistons and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Pistons W1, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers) and Jalen Duren (Pistons). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Pistons start with a clear edge. The model projects Pistons 117 – 107 76ers, a margin of about 9.9 points in favor of the Pistons and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pistons will be without Jalen Duren. The 76ers will be without Tacko Fall or Dominick Barlow (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.5 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The 76ers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pistons' defense allows clearly fewer points (107.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pistons

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DET +6.5 / PHI +0.7 per game

+5.8

Home-court advantagePistons at home

+2.3

InjuriesDET: 1 out, 1 questionable · PHI: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Pistons

+9.9

Scenarios

Pistons win by 10+

50%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

23%

76ers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHIDET

114.4

Points scored / game

115.4

113.5

Points allowed / game

107.8

42.8 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

32.6 %

3-point %

37.9 %

35.0

3-pointers attempted / game

36.4

77.5 %

Free throw %

74.4 %

42.2

Rebounds / game

46.8

24.6

Assists / game

27.0

9.8

Steals / game

8.0

5.6

Blocks / game

7.2

12.6

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

76ers

Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game

LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists

Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Pistons

Cade CunninghamG · #222.6pts / game

Cade CunninghamG · #27.8assists

Paul ReedF · #77.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHI

106-100W

114-106W

127-116L

106-93W

114-109

DET

121-113W

128-111W

106-93L

111-97W

97-89

Head-to-head

DET lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

PHI 22% · DET 78%

ESPN BPI

PHI 49% · DET 51%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHI		DET
4-1	Record	4-1
114.4	Points scored / game	115.4
113.5	Points allowed / game	107.8
+0.7	Adjusted margin / game	+6.5
W1	Current streak	W1
4-1	Last 10 games	4-1
2-0 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
45-37 (-0.2)	Last season	60-22 (+8.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report 76ers

Tacko Fall COut

Dominick Barlow FOut

Ariel Hukporti COut

Jabari Walker FDay-To-Day

Injury report Pistons

Jalen Duren COut

Isaiah Joe GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.