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Timberwolves vs Kings prediction NBA · Thursday, February 4

Thu, Feb 4 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

122-107

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

88% win MINwin SAC 12%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin14.8

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Thursday, February 4 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 88% chance to win and projects a 122-107 score (Timberwolves – Kings), about 230 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Kings L4, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Kings 107 – 122 Timberwolves, a margin of about 14.8 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / MIN +5.2 per game

-15.3

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Kings

-14.8

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

16%

Timberwolves win by 10+

65%

Stat comparison Current season

MINSAC

118.7

Points scored / game

110.2

112.6

Points allowed / game

122.1

47.3 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

38.4 %

3-point %

30.0 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

62.7 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

41.5

27.0

Assists / game

22.8

9.2

Steals / game

6.8

4.4

Blocks / game

2.5

16.2

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 88% · SAC 12%

ESPN BPI

MIN 86% · SAC 14%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		SAC
3-2	Record	0-4
118.7	Points scored / game	110.2
112.6	Points allowed / game	122.1
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
L2	Current streak	L4
3-2	Last 10 games	0-4
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.