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Kings vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 31

Wed, Mar 31 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · DAZN MIN

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

105-125

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

6% win SACwin MIN 94%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin19.4

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Wednesday, March 31 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 94% chance to win and projects a 105-125 score (Kings – Timberwolves), about 230 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 10% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 125 – 105 Kings, a margin of about 19.4 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / SAC -10.1 per game

+15.3

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+19.4

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

77%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

10%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACMIN

110.2

Points scored / game

118.7

122.1

Points allowed / game

112.6

44.5 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

30.0 %

3-point %

38.4 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

73.1 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

51.6

22.8

Assists / game

27.0

6.8

Steals / game

9.2

2.5

Blocks / game

4.4

14.3

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 6% · MIN 94%

ESPN BPI

SAC 10% · MIN 90%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		MIN
0-4	Record	3-2
110.2	Points scored / game	118.7
122.1	Points allowed / game	112.6
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
L4	Current streak	L2
0-4	Last 10 games	3-2
0-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.