Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Hawks vs Pacers prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 3

Wed, Feb 3 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · DAZN IND

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

119-111

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

73% win ATLwin IND 27%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin7.8

Projected total231

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Wednesday, February 3 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 73% chance to win and projects a 119-111 score (Hawks – Pacers), about 231 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Pacers L2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 111 – 119 Hawks, a margin of about 7.8 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / ATL +2.7 per game

-7.4

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.7

Expected marginfor Pacers

-7.8

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Hawks win by 10+

43%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLIND

119.0

Points scored / game

113.2

115.8

Points allowed / game

118.8

46.9 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

34.8 %

3-point %

31.2 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

72.8 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

44.0

32.2

Assists / game

29.4

10.2

Steals / game

6.4

3.6

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 73% · IND 27%

ESPN BPI

ATL 50% · IND 50%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		IND
2-3	Record	2-3
119.0	Points scored / game	113.2
115.8	Points allowed / game	118.8
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L3	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.