Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Pacers vs Hawks prediction NBA · Thursday, January 7

Thu, Jan 7 · 7:00 PM ETState Farm Arena · DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

108-122

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · home

13% win INDwin ATL 87%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin14.0

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Thursday, January 7 at 7:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 87% chance to win and projects a 108-122 score (Pacers – Hawks), about 229 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Hawks L3, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Hawks 122 – 108 Pacers, a margin of about 14.0 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The overall strength gap (+2.7 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / IND -4.7 per game

+7.4

Home-court advantageHawks at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPacers played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+2.7

Expected marginfor Hawks

+14.0

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+

63%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

17%

Pacers win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

INDATL

113.2

Points scored / game

119.0

118.8

Points allowed / game

115.8

47.1 %

Field goal %

46.9 %

31.2 %

3-point %

34.8 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

41.4

72.7 %

Free throw %

72.8 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

41.4

29.4

Assists / game

32.2

6.4

Steals / game

10.2

4.8

Blocks / game

3.6

14.8

Turnovers / game

14.0

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 13% · ATL 87%

ESPN BPI

IND 38% · ATL 62%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

IND		ATL
2-3	Record	2-3
113.2	Points scored / game	119.0
118.8	Points allowed / game	115.8
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	+2.7
L2	Current streak	L3
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	46-36 (+2.4)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.