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Hawks vs Pacers prediction NBA · Monday, November 2

Mon, Nov 2 · 7:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · NBA League Pass, DAZN IND

Atlanta Hawks

2-3 · away

Projected score

119-110

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

76% win ATLwin IND 24%

FavoriteATL

Projected margin8.9

Projected total230

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Monday, November 2 at 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 76% chance to win and projects a 119-110 score (Hawks – Pacers), about 230 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Pacers L2, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pacers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) and Johnny Furphy (Pacers). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Hawks dominate this matchup. The model projects Pacers 110 – 119 Hawks, a margin of about 8.9 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +2.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / ATL +2.7 per game

-7.4

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backPacers played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesIND: 4 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable

-2.2

Expected marginfor Pacers

-8.9

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

24%

Hawks win by 10+

46%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLIND

119.0

Points scored / game

113.2

115.8

Points allowed / game

118.8

46.9 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

34.8 %

3-point %

31.2 %

41.4

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

72.8 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

41.4

Rebounds / game

44.0

32.2

Assists / game

29.4

10.2

Steals / game

6.4

3.6

Blocks / game

4.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Hawks

Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game

Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists

Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

ATL

132-125W

128-81L

121-114L

120-110L

129-117

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

ATL 76% · IND 24%

ESPN BPI

ATL 71% · IND 29%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

ATL		IND
2-3	Record	2-3
119.0	Points scored / game	113.2
115.8	Points allowed / game	118.8
+2.7	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L3	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
46-36 (+2.4)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut

Henri Veesaar COut

Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.