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Lakers vs Hornets prediction NBA · Sunday, January 31

Sun, Jan 31 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, DAZN CHA
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
112-113
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 · home
50% win LALwin CHA 50%
FavoriteCHA
Projected margin0.1
Projected total223
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Sunday, January 31 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 50% chance to win and projects a 112-113 score (Lakers – Hornets), about 223 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Hornets L1, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Lakers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Hornets 113 – 112 Lakers, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 223 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / LAL +3.5 per game
-2.4
Home-court advantageHornets at home
+2.3
Back-to-backLakers played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable
-1.5
Expected marginfor Hornets
+0.1

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+
21%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Lakers win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison Current season

LALCHA
118.4
Points scored / game
111.6
114.3
Points allowed / game
110.3
52.9 %
Field goal %
41.7 %
39.2 %
3-point %
30.6 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
43.2
79.1 %
Free throw %
85.2 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
47.4
24.0
Assists / game
20.6
10.8
Steals / game
6.8
5.8
Blocks / game
5.2
16.6
Turnovers / game
19.0

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
CHA
WBKN110-103LATL128-81WMIA115-110WWSH110-103LDET97-89

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 17CHAupcomingLALJan 31LALthis gameCHA

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 50% · CHA 50%
ESPN BPI
LAL 58% · CHA 42%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

LALCHA
4-1Record3-2
118.4Points scored / game111.6
114.3Points allowed / game110.3
+3.5Adjusted margin / game+1.1
W1Current streakL1
4-1Last 10 games3-2
2-0 roadHome / road record2-1 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season44-38 (+4.8)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut
Coby White GOut
Grant Williams FOut
Kylan Boswell GOut
Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.