Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Grizzlies vs Jazz prediction NBA · Saturday, January 30

Sat, Jan 30 · 9:30 PM ETDelta Center · KJZZ-TV, Jazz+, DAZN MEM

Memphis Grizzlies

4-0 · away

Projected score

121-115

Utah Jazz

1-4 · home

68% win MEMwin UTAH 32%

FavoriteMEM

Projected margin6.0

Projected total235

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Utah Jazz (1-4) host the Memphis Grizzlies (4-0) on Saturday, January 30 at 9:30 PM ET at Delta Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Grizzlies a 68% chance to win and projects a 121-115 score (Grizzlies – Jazz), about 235 total points. This season, the Jazz are 1-3 at home and the Grizzlies are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Jazz and 4-0 for the Grizzlies (current streaks: Jazz L3, Grizzlies W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jaren Jackson Jr. (Jazz), Trey Alexander (Jazz) and Jusuf Nurkic (Jazz). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Grizzlies are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Jazz 115 – 121 Grizzlies, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Grizzlies and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Jazz will be without Jaren Jackson Jr. or Trey Alexander (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs -1.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Jazz need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Grizzlies' defense allows clearly fewer points (117.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Jazz

Team strength (adjusted point differential)UTAH -7.0 / MEM -1.8 per game

-5.3

Home-court advantageJazz at home

+2.3

InjuriesUTAH: 3 out, 1 questionable · MEM: 0 out, 0 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Jazz

-6.0

Scenarios

Jazz win by 10+

10%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Grizzlies win by 10+

37%

Stat comparison Current season

MEMUTAH

115.2

Points scored / game

116.1

117.3

Points allowed / game

124.3

45.3 %

Field goal %

45.4 %

39.1 %

3-point %

33.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

34.8

82.8 %

Free throw %

76.6 %

50.0

Rebounds / game

46.8

25.0

Assists / game

26.8

6.3

Steals / game

5.0

6.3

Blocks / game

6.4

15.5

Turnovers / game

17.0

Players to watch

Grizzlies

Ty JeromeG · #229.8pts / game

Ty JeromeG · #26.5assists

Cameron BoozerF · #2710.5rebounds

Jazz

Keyonte GeorgeG · #324.4pts / game

Keyonte GeorgeG · #36.8assists

Ace BaileyG · #198.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MEM

116-98W

123-103W

111-108W

123-112W

110-105

UTAH

123-103W

120-119L

132-123L

110-105L

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

MEM lead 2-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MEM 68% · UTAH 32%

ESPN BPI

MEM 44% · UTAH 56%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MEM		UTAH
4-0	Record	1-4
115.2	Points scored / game	116.1
117.3	Points allowed / game	124.3
-1.8	Adjusted margin / game	-7.0
W4	Current streak	L3
4-0	Last 10 games	1-4
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-3 home
25-57 (-6.0)	Last season	22-60 (-8.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Grizzlies

No injuries reported.

Injury report Jazz

Jaren Jackson Jr. FOut

Trey Alexander GOut

Jusuf Nurkic COut

Lauri Markkanen FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.