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Wizards vs Lakers prediction NBA · Sunday, January 24

Sun, Jan 24 · 4:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · away
Projected score
109-123
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · home
12% win WSHwin LAL 88%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin14.4
Projected total232
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Sunday, January 24 at 4:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 88% chance to win and projects a 109-123 score (Wizards – Lakers), about 232 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Lakers W1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 17% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Lakers 123 – 109 Wizards, a margin of about 14.4 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

  • The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / WSH -7.7 per game
+11.2
Home-court advantageLakers at home
+2.3
InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 1 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable
+0.9
Expected marginfor Lakers
+14.4

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+
64%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
17%
Wizards win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHLAL
113.1
Points scored / game
118.4
122.2
Points allowed / game
114.3
48.0 %
Field goal %
52.9 %
28.5 %
3-point %
39.2 %
31.6
3-pointers attempted / game
36.2
83.1 %
Free throw %
79.1 %
40.0
Rebounds / game
38.0
25.8
Assists / game
24.0
7.4
Steals / game
10.8
5.6
Blocks / game
5.8
13.6
Turnovers / game
16.6

Players to watch

Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds
Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 5LALupcomingWSHJan 24WSHthis gameLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
WSH 12% · LAL 88%
ESPN BPI
WSH 24% · LAL 76%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSHLAL
2-3Record4-1
113.1Points scored / game118.4
122.2Points allowed / game114.3
-7.7Adjusted margin / game+3.5
L2Current streakW1
2-3Last 10 games4-1
1-2 roadHome / road record2-1 home
17-65 (-12.0)Last season53-29 (+1.8)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.