Login
Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Lakers vs Wizards prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 5

Tue, Jan 5 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +
Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers
4-1 · away
Projected score
121-111
Washington Wizards
Washington Wizards
2-3 · home
78% win LALwin WSH 22%
FavoriteLAL
Projected margin9.4
Projected total232
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Tuesday, January 5 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 78% chance to win and projects a 121-111 score (Lakers – Wizards), about 232 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Wizards L2, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 111 – 121 Lakers, a margin of about 9.4 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards
Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / LAL +3.5 per game
-11.2
Home-court advantageWizards at home
+2.3
InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable
-0.6
Expected marginfor Wizards
-9.4

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+
6%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
24%
Lakers win by 10+
48%

Stat comparison Current season

LALWSH
118.4
Points scored / game
113.1
114.3
Points allowed / game
122.2
52.9 %
Field goal %
48.0 %
39.2 %
3-point %
28.5 %
36.2
3-pointers attempted / game
31.6
79.1 %
Free throw %
83.1 %
38.0
Rebounds / game
40.0
24.0
Assists / game
25.8
10.8
Steals / game
7.4
5.8
Blocks / game
5.6
16.6
Turnovers / game
13.6

Players to watch

Lakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game
Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds
Wizards
Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game
Trae YoungG · #310.4assists
Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
LAL
WGS127-105WLAC125-117WUTAH132-123LPOR136-129WLAC103-87
WSH
WMIL128-116LTOR112-102WCHI124-120LCHA110-103LCLE121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Jan 5LALthis gameWSHJan 24WSHupcomingLAL

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
LAL 78% · WSH 22%
ESPN BPI
LAL 67% · WSH 33%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LALWSH
4-1Record2-3
118.4Points scored / game113.1
114.3Points allowed / game122.2
+3.5Adjusted margin / game-7.7
W1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games2-3
2-0 roadHome / road record1-1 home
53-29 (+1.8)Last season17-65 (-12.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Los Angeles Lakers Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut
Adou Thiero FOut
Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day
Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Washington Wizards Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut
Tristan Vukcevic FOut
Jamir Watkins GOut
Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.