Kings vs Lakers prediction NBA · Friday, January 22
At a glance
The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Friday, January 22 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 89% chance to win and projects a 107-122 score (Kings – Lakers), about 229 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Lakers W1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 15% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Lakers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Lakers 122 – 107 Kings, a margin of about 15.4 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SACLAL
Players to watch
Kings
Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game
Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assistsDomantas SabonisF · #1116.5reboundsLakers
Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / gameLuka DoncicG · #778.2assists
Walker KesslerC · #148.2reboundsRecent form
SAC
126-97L
121-96L
128-120L
123-112L130-103LAL
127-105W125-117W
132-123L136-129W103-87Head-to-head
4 meetings scheduled this season.
LAL
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| SAC | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| 110.2 | Points scored / game | 118.4 |
| 122.1 | Points allowed / game | 114.3 |
| -10.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.5 |
| L4 | Current streak | W1 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 2-1 home |
| 22-60 (-10.0) | Last season | 53-29 (+1.8) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Kings
Injury report Lakers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.