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Lakers vs Kings prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 19

Tue, Jan 19 · 10:00 PM ETGolden 1 Center · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

121-109

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · home

84% win LALwin SAC 16%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin12.4

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Sacramento Kings (0-4) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Tuesday, January 19 at 10:00 PM ET at Golden 1 Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 84% chance to win and projects a 121-109 score (Lakers – Kings), about 230 total points. This season, the Kings are 0-2 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Kings and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Kings L4, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings) and Ben Simmons (Kings). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Lakers start with a clear edge. The model projects Kings 109 – 121 Lakers, a margin of about 12.4 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-10.1 vs +3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Kings

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SAC -10.1 / LAL +3.5 per game

-13.6

Home-court advantageKings at home

+2.3

InjuriesSAC: 4 out, 0 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Kings

-12.4

Scenarios

Kings win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Lakers win by 10+

58%

Stat comparison Current season

LALSAC

118.4

Points scored / game

110.2

114.3

Points allowed / game

122.1

52.9 %

Field goal %

44.5 %

39.2 %

3-point %

30.0 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.5

79.1 %

Free throw %

73.1 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

41.5

24.0

Assists / game

22.8

10.8

Steals / game

6.8

5.8

Blocks / game

2.5

16.6

Turnovers / game

14.3

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 84% · SAC 16%

ESPN BPI

LAL 83% · SAC 17%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		SAC
4-1	Record	0-4
118.4	Points scored / game	110.2
114.3	Points allowed / game	122.1
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	-10.1
W1	Current streak	L4
4-1	Last 10 games	0-4
2-0 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	22-60 (-10.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.