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Kings vs Lakers prediction NBA · Friday, November 20

Fri, Nov 20 · 10:00 PM ETcrypto.com Arena · Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +

Sacramento Kings

0-4 · away

Projected score

107-124

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · home

9% win SACwin LAL 91%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin17.0

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) host the Sacramento Kings (0-4) on Friday, November 20 at 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 91% chance to win and projects a 107-124 score (Kings – Lakers), about 230 total points. This season, the Lakers are 2-1 at home and the Kings are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Lakers and 0-4 for the Kings (current streaks: Lakers W1, Kings L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Dylan Cardwell (Kings), Maxime Raynaud (Kings), Keegan Murray (Kings), Ben Simmons (Kings), Cameron Carr (Lakers) and Adou Thiero (Lakers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Lakers dominate this matchup. The model projects Lakers 124 – 107 Kings, a margin of about 17.0 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. The Kings will be without Dylan Cardwell or Maxime Raynaud (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.5 vs -10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Kings need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Lakers' defense allows clearly fewer points (114.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Lakers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAL +3.5 / SAC -10.1 per game

+13.6

Home-court advantageLakers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAL: 2 out, 2 questionable · SAC: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.1

Expected marginfor Lakers

+17.0

Scenarios

Lakers win by 10+

71%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Kings win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

SACLAL

110.2

Points scored / game

118.4

122.1

Points allowed / game

114.3

44.5 %

Field goal %

52.9 %

30.0 %

3-point %

39.2 %

32.5

3-pointers attempted / game

36.2

73.1 %

Free throw %

79.1 %

41.5

Rebounds / game

38.0

22.8

Assists / game

24.0

6.8

Steals / game

10.8

2.5

Blocks / game

5.8

14.3

Turnovers / game

16.6

Players to watch

Kings

Zach LaVineG · #827.2pts / game

Domantas SabonisF · #117.2assists

Domantas SabonisF · #1116.5rebounds

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

SAC

L126-97L121-96L128-120L123-112L130-103

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SAC 9% · LAL 91%

ESPN BPI

SAC 12% · LAL 88%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SAC		LAL
0-4	Record	4-1
110.2	Points scored / game	118.4
122.1	Points allowed / game	114.3
-10.1	Adjusted margin / game	+3.5
L4	Current streak	W1
0-4	Last 10 games	4-1
0-2 road	Home / road record	2-1 home
22-60 (-10.0)	Last season	53-29 (+1.8)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Kings

Dylan Cardwell COut

Maxime Raynaud COut

Keegan Murray FOut

Ben Simmons GOut

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Luka Doncic GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.