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Wizards vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Thursday, January 21

Thu, Jan 21 · 9:00 PM ETBall Arena

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

110-122

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

17% win WSHwin DEN 83%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin12.1

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Thursday, January 21 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 83% chance to win and projects a 110-122 score (Wizards – Nuggets), about 233 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets) and Spencer Jones (Nuggets)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Nuggets dominate this matchup. The model projects Nuggets 122 – 110 Wizards, a margin of about 12.1 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / WSH -7.7 per game

+10.3

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-0.5

Expected marginfor Nuggets

+12.1

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

57%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHDEN

113.1

Points scored / game

119.2

122.2

Points allowed / game

116.2

48.0 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

28.5 %

3-point %

32.8 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

83.1 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

44.5

25.8

Assists / game

26.0

7.4

Steals / game

10.0

5.6

Blocks / game

4.8

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 17% · DEN 83%

ESPN BPI

WSH 28% · DEN 72%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		DEN
2-3	Record	2-2
113.1	Points scored / game	119.2
122.2	Points allowed / game	116.2
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	2-2
1-2 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.