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Nuggets vs Wizards prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24

Wed, Mar 24 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

120-113

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

73% win DENwin WSH 27%

FavoriteDEN

Projected margin7.5

Projected total233

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Wednesday, March 24 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 73% chance to win and projects a 120-113 score (Nuggets – Wizards), about 233 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Wizards L2, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Justin Champagnie (Wizards) and Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Nuggets start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 113 – 120 Nuggets, a margin of about 7.5 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Nuggets will be without Alpha Diallo or Cameron Johnson (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / DEN +2.6 per game

-10.3

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+0.5

Expected marginfor Wizards

-7.5

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

26%

Nuggets win by 10+

42%

Stat comparison Current season

DENWSH

119.2

Points scored / game

113.1

116.2

Points allowed / game

122.2

45.8 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

32.8 %

3-point %

28.5 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

79.6 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

40.0

26.0

Assists / game

25.8

10.0

Steals / game

7.4

4.8

Blocks / game

5.6

15.3

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

2 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 73% · WSH 27%

ESPN BPI

DEN 64% · WSH 36%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		WSH
2-2	Record	2-3
119.2	Points scored / game	113.1
116.2	Points allowed / game	122.2
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W1	Current streak	L2
2-2	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Alpha Diallo FOut

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.