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Rockets vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 20

Wed, Jan 20 · 8:00 PM ETTarget Center · DAZN MIN

Houston Rockets

5-0 · away

Projected score

113-115

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

44% win HOUwin MIN 56%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin2.0

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Houston Rockets (5-0) on Wednesday, January 20 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 56% chance to win and projects a 113-115 score (Rockets – Timberwolves), about 227 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Rockets are 3-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 5-0 for the Rockets (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Rockets W5). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets), Steven Adams (Rockets), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Timberwolves 115 – 113 Rockets, a margin of about 2.0 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other).

The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / HOU +6.7 per game

-1.5

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · HOU: 3 out, 1 questionable

+1.3

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+2.0

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

26%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Rockets win by 10+

17%

Stat comparison Current season

HOUMIN

117.5

Points scored / game

118.7

109.7

Points allowed / game

112.6

51.7 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

40.4 %

3-point %

38.4 %

32.2

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

84.7 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

51.6

28.2

Assists / game

27.0

10.2

Steals / game

9.2

6.0

Blocks / game

4.4

15.8

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

HOU 44% · MIN 56%

ESPN BPI

HOU 45% · MIN 55%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

HOU		MIN
5-0	Record	3-2
117.5	Points scored / game	118.7
109.7	Points allowed / game	112.6
+6.7	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W5	Current streak	L2
5-0	Last 10 games	3-2
3-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+5.2)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.