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Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 5

Tue, Jan 5 · 8:00 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · NBC, DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-115

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

42% win MINwin HOU 58%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin2.6

Projected total227

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Tuesday, January 5 at 8:00 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 58% chance to win and projects a 112-115 score (Timberwolves – Rockets), about 227 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Rockets W5, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Reed Sheppard (Rockets), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Rockets, but the Timberwolves have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Rockets 115 – 112 Timberwolves, a margin of about 2.6 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Reed Sheppard or Marcus Smart (and 1 other). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / MIN +5.2 per game

+1.5

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 3 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Rockets

+2.6

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

28%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Timberwolves win by 10+

16%

Stat comparison Current season

MINHOU

118.7

Points scored / game

117.5

112.6

Points allowed / game

109.7

47.3 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

38.4 %

3-point %

40.4 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

62.7 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.0

Assists / game

28.2

9.2

Steals / game

10.2

4.4

Blocks / game

6.0

16.2

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 42% · HOU 58%

ESPN BPI

MIN 44% · HOU 56%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		HOU
3-2	Record	5-0
118.7	Points scored / game	117.5
112.6	Points allowed / game	109.7
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L2	Current streak	W5
3-2	Last 10 games	5-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Rockets

Reed Sheppard GOut

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.