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Timberwolves vs Rockets prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 4

Wed, Nov 4 · 8:30 PM ETToyota Center (Houston) · DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

112-116

Houston Rockets

5-0 · home

39% win MINwin HOU 61%

FavoriteHOU

Projected margin3.5

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Houston Rockets (5-0) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Wednesday, November 4 at 8:30 PM ET at Toyota Center (Houston) in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Rockets a 61% chance to win and projects a 112-116 score (Timberwolves – Rockets), about 228 total points. This season, the Rockets are 2-0 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-0 for the Rockets and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Rockets W5, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Marcus Smart (Rockets) and Steven Adams (Rockets). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Rockets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Rockets 116 – 112 Timberwolves, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Rockets and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets will be without Marcus Smart or Steven Adams. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.

The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Rockets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)HOU +6.7 / MIN +5.2 per game

+1.5

Home-court advantageRockets at home

+2.3

InjuriesHOU: 2 out, 1 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-0.3

Expected marginfor Rockets

+3.5

Scenarios

Rockets win by 10+

30%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Timberwolves win by 10+

14%

Stat comparison Current season

MINHOU

118.7

Points scored / game

117.5

112.6

Points allowed / game

109.7

47.3 %

Field goal %

51.7 %

38.4 %

3-point %

40.4 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

32.2

62.7 %

Free throw %

84.7 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.0

Assists / game

28.2

9.2

Steals / game

10.2

4.4

Blocks / game

6.0

16.2

Turnovers / game

15.8

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Rockets

Alperen SengunC · #2824.5pts / game

Alperen SengunC · #287.0assists

Alperen SengunC · #289.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

HOU

128-110W

114-110W

121-114W

120-110W

132-100

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 39% · HOU 61%

ESPN BPI

MIN 41% · HOU 59%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		HOU
3-2	Record	5-0
118.7	Points scored / game	117.5
112.6	Points allowed / game	109.7
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.7
L2	Current streak	W5
3-2	Last 10 games	5-0
2-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	52-30 (+5.2)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Rockets

Marcus Smart GOut

Steven Adams COut

Alperen Sengun CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.