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Pacers vs 76ers prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 19

Tue, Jan 19 · 7:00 PM ETXfinity Mobile Arena · DAZN IND
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · away
Projected score
109-116
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
4-1 · home
29% win INDwin PHI 71%
FavoritePHI
Projected margin7.1
Projected total226
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Tuesday, January 19 at 7:00 PM ET at Xfinity Mobile Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 71% chance to win and projects a 109-116 score (Pacers – 76ers), about 226 total points. This season, the 76ers are 2-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the 76ers and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: 76ers W1, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the 76ers played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers), Tacko Fall (76ers) and Dominick Barlow (76ers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the 76ers, but the Pacers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects 76ers 116 – 109 Pacers, a margin of about 7.1 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The 76ers played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The 76ers will be without Tacko Fall or Dominick Barlow (and 1 other). The Pacers will be without T.J. McConnell or Ben Sheppard (and 2 others).

  • The overall strength gap (+0.7 vs -4.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge 76ers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PHI +0.7 / IND -4.7 per game
+5.5
Home-court advantage76ers at home
+2.3
Back-to-back76ers played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesPHI: 3 out, 1 questionable · IND: 4 out, 1 questionable
+0.9
Expected marginfor 76ers
+7.1

Scenarios

76ers win by 10+
41%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Pacers win by 10+
9%

Stat comparison Current season

INDPHI
113.2
Points scored / game
114.4
118.8
Points allowed / game
113.5
47.1 %
Field goal %
42.8 %
31.2 %
3-point %
32.6 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
35.0
72.7 %
Free throw %
77.5 %
44.0
Rebounds / game
42.2
29.4
Assists / game
24.6
6.4
Steals / game
9.8
4.8
Blocks / game
5.6
14.8
Turnovers / game
12.6

Players to watch

Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds
76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109
PHI
WNY106-100WCLE114-106WMIL127-116LDET106-93WIND114-109

Head-to-head

PHI lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 28PHI114 - 109INDNov 15INDupcomingPHINov 27PHIupcomingINDJan 19INDthis gamePHI

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
IND 29% · PHI 71%
ESPN BPI
IND 36% · PHI 64%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

INDPHI
2-3Record4-1
113.2Points scored / game114.4
118.8Points allowed / game113.5
-4.7Adjusted margin / game+0.7
L2Current streakW1
2-3Last 10 games4-1
2-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
19-63 (-8.0)Last season45-37 (-0.2)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Ivica Zubac CDay-To-Day

Philadelphia 76ers Injury report 76ers

Tacko Fall COut
Dominick Barlow FOut
Ariel Hukporti COut
Jabari Walker FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.