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76ers vs Pacers prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 7:30 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse
Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers
4-1 · away
Projected score
115-111
Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers
2-3 · home
62% win PHIwin IND 38%
FavoritePHI
Projected margin3.7
Projected total227
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Philadelphia 76ers (4-1) on Friday, November 27 at 7:30 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the 76ers a 62% chance to win and projects a 115-111 score (76ers – Pacers), about 227 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the 76ers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 4-1 for the 76ers (current streaks: Pacers L2, 76ers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jabari Walker (76ers), Tacko Fall (76ers), Dominick Barlow (76ers), Ariel Hukporti (76ers), Ivica Zubac (Pacers) and T.J. McConnell (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The 76ers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 111 – 115 76ers, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of the 76ers and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The 76ers will be without Jabari Walker or Tacko Fall (and 2 others).

  • The overall strength gap (-4.7 vs +0.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The 76ers' defense allows clearly fewer points (113.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / PHI +0.7 per game
-5.5
Home-court advantagePacers at home
+2.3
InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · PHI: 4 out, 1 questionable
-0.5
Expected marginfor Pacers
-3.7

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+
14%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
76ers win by 10+
31%

Stat comparison Current season

PHIIND
114.4
Points scored / game
113.2
113.5
Points allowed / game
118.8
42.8 %
Field goal %
47.1 %
32.6 %
3-point %
31.2 %
35.0
3-pointers attempted / game
37.8
77.5 %
Free throw %
72.7 %
42.2
Rebounds / game
44.0
24.6
Assists / game
29.4
9.8
Steals / game
6.4
5.6
Blocks / game
4.8
12.6
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

76ers
Tyrese MaxeyG · #028.4pts / game
LeBron JamesF · #236.8assists
Joel EmbiidC · #2110.0rebounds
Pacers
Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game
Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists
Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
PHI
WNY106-100WCLE114-106WMIL127-116LDET106-93WIND114-109
IND
WNO123-120LDAL121-105WBKN136-109LMIL110-102LPHI114-109

Head-to-head

PHI lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 28PHI114 - 109INDNov 15INDupcomingPHINov 27PHIthis gameINDJan 19INDupcomingPHI

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
PHI 62% · IND 38%
ESPN BPI
PHI 53% · IND 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

PHIIND
4-1Record2-3
114.4Points scored / game113.2
113.5Points allowed / game118.8
+0.7Adjusted margin / game-4.7
W1Current streakL2
4-1Last 10 games2-3
2-0 roadHome / road record0-2 home
45-37 (-0.2)Last season19-63 (-8.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Philadelphia 76ers Injury report 76ers

Jabari Walker FOut
Tacko Fall COut
Dominick Barlow FOut
Ariel Hukporti COut
Jaylen Brown GDay-To-Day

Indiana Pacers Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut
T.J. McConnell GOut
Ben Sheppard GOut
Tyrese Haliburton GOut
Johnny Furphy GOut
Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day
Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.