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Pacers vs Wizards prediction NBA · Sunday, January 17

Sun, Jan 17 · 1:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · DAZN IND

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · away

Projected score

115-116

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

48% win INDwin WSH 52%

FavoriteWSH

Projected margin0.8

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Indiana Pacers (2-3) on Sunday, January 17 at 1:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Wizards a 52% chance to win and projects a 115-116 score (Pacers – Wizards), about 231 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Pacers are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 2-3 for the Pacers (current streaks: Wizards L2, Pacers L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers), Ben Sheppard (Pacers), Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers), Johnny Furphy (Pacers) and Justin Champagnie (Wizards)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Wizards 116 – 115 Pacers, a margin of about 0.8 points in favor of the Wizards and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others).

The Pacers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / IND -4.7 per game

-3.0

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · IND: 5 out, 2 questionable

+1.4

Expected marginfor Wizards

+0.8

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

23%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Pacers win by 10+

19%

Stat comparison Current season

INDWSH

113.2

Points scored / game

113.1

118.8

Points allowed / game

122.2

47.1 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

31.2 %

3-point %

28.5 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

72.7 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

44.0

Rebounds / game

40.0

29.4

Assists / game

25.8

6.4

Steals / game

7.4

4.8

Blocks / game

5.6

14.8

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

IND 48% · WSH 52%

ESPN BPI

IND 59% · WSH 41%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

IND		WSH
2-3	Record	2-3
113.2	Points scored / game	113.1
118.8	Points allowed / game	122.2
-4.7	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
L2	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
19-63 (-8.0)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.