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Wizards vs Pacers prediction NBA · Wednesday, November 11

Wed, Nov 11 · 7:00 PM ETGainbridge Fieldhouse · MNMT, DAZN IND

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

113-117

Indiana Pacers

2-3 · home

38% win WSHwin IND 62%

FavoriteIND

Projected margin3.8

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Indiana Pacers (2-3) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Wednesday, November 11 at 7:00 PM ET at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Pacers a 62% chance to win and projects a 113-117 score (Wizards – Pacers), about 231 total points. This season, the Pacers are 0-2 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Pacers and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Pacers L2, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards), Ivica Zubac (Pacers), T.J. McConnell (Pacers) and Ben Sheppard (Pacers)…. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Pacers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pacers 117 – 113 Wizards, a margin of about 3.8 points in favor of the Pacers and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Pacers will be without Ivica Zubac or T.J. McConnell (and 3 others). The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other).

The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Pacers' defense allows clearly fewer points (118.8 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Pacers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)IND -4.7 / WSH -7.7 per game

+3.0

Home-court advantagePacers at home

+2.3

InjuriesIND: 5 out, 2 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

-1.4

Expected marginfor Pacers

+3.8

Scenarios

Pacers win by 10+

31%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Wizards win by 10+

13%

Stat comparison Current season

WSHIND

113.1

Points scored / game

113.2

122.2

Points allowed / game

118.8

48.0 %

Field goal %

47.1 %

28.5 %

3-point %

31.2 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

83.1 %

Free throw %

72.7 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

44.0

25.8

Assists / game

29.4

7.4

Steals / game

6.4

5.6

Blocks / game

4.8

13.6

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Pacers

Pascal SiakamF · #4324.0pts / game

Tyrese HaliburtonG · #09.5assists

Ivica ZubacC · #409.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

IND

123-120L

121-105W

136-109L

110-102L

114-109

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 38% · IND 62%

ESPN BPI

WSH 48% · IND 52%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		IND
2-3	Record	2-3
113.1	Points scored / game	113.2
122.2	Points allowed / game	118.8
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	-4.7
L2	Current streak	L2
2-3	Last 10 games	2-3
1-2 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	19-63 (-8.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Pacers

Ivica Zubac COut

T.J. McConnell GOut

Ben Sheppard GOut

Tyrese Haliburton GOut

Johnny Furphy GOut

Andrew Nembhard GDay-To-Day

Aaron Nesmith GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.