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Heat vs Knicks prediction NBA · Thursday, January 14

Thu, Jan 14 · 7:30 PM ETMadison Square Garden · NBA TV
Miami Heat
Miami Heat
1-4 · away
Projected score
112-117
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
2-3 · home
36% win MIAwin NY 64%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin4.6
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Thursday, January 14 at 7:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 64% chance to win and projects a 112-117 score (Heat – Knicks), about 229 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Knicks W2, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Knicks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Knicks, but the Heat have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Knicks 117 – 112 Heat, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

  • The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / MIA -0.6 per game
+4.4
Home-court advantageKnicks at home
+2.3
Back-to-backKnicks played yesterday
-1.6
InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable
-0.6
Expected marginfor Knicks
+4.6

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+
33%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
Heat win by 10+
12%

Stat comparison Current season

MIANY
118.6
Points scored / game
114.5
119.2
Points allowed / game
110.0
45.3 %
Field goal %
42.2 %
31.7 %
3-point %
35.9 %
37.8
3-pointers attempted / game
39.0
71.7 %
Free throw %
75.8 %
42.8
Rebounds / game
48.2
27.0
Assists / game
26.8
8.4
Steals / game
7.2
5.4
Blocks / game
4.4
14.2
Turnovers / game
14.8

Players to watch

Heat
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game
Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds
Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game
Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
MIA
LMIN131-106LDET128-111LCHA115-110LDAL113-109WATL129-117
NY
LPHI106-100LBOS107-103LORL111-102WDET111-97WCHI133-127

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Nov 27MIAupcomingNYDec 12NYupcomingMIAJan 14MIAthis gameNY

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
MIA 36% · NY 64%
ESPN BPI
MIA 34% · NY 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIANY
1-4Record2-3
118.6Points scored / game114.5
119.2Points allowed / game110.0
-0.6Adjusted margin / game+3.8
W1Current streakW2
1-4Last 10 games2-3
1-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)Last season53-29 (+6.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayYes

Miami Heat Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.