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Heat vs Knicks prediction NBA · Friday, November 27

Fri, Nov 27 · 7:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · Prime Video

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

112-118

New York Knicks

2-3 · home

31% win MIAwin NY 69%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin6.2

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The New York Knicks (2-3) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Friday, November 27 at 7:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 69% chance to win and projects a 112-118 score (Heat – Knicks), about 231 total points. This season, the Knicks are 1-2 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Knicks and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Knicks W2, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Knicks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Knicks 118 – 112 Heat, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The overall strength gap (+3.8 vs -0.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Knicks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)NY +3.8 / MIA -0.6 per game

+4.4

Home-court advantageKnicks at home

+2.3

InjuriesNY: 1 out, 0 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-0.6

Expected marginfor Knicks

+6.2

Scenarios

Knicks win by 10+

38%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

28%

Heat win by 10+

10%

Stat comparison Current season

MIANY

118.6

Points scored / game

114.5

119.2

Points allowed / game

110.0

45.3 %

Field goal %

42.2 %

31.7 %

3-point %

35.9 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

39.0

71.7 %

Free throw %

75.8 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

48.2

27.0

Assists / game

26.8

8.4

Steals / game

7.2

5.4

Blocks / game

4.4

14.2

Turnovers / game

14.8

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 31% · NY 69%

ESPN BPI

MIA 33% · NY 67%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIA		NY
1-4	Record	2-3
118.6	Points scored / game	114.5
119.2	Points allowed / game	110.0
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	+3.8
W1	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	53-29 (+6.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.