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Knicks vs Heat prediction NBA · Saturday, December 12

Sat, Dec 12 · 8:30 PM ETKaseya Center · ABC

New York Knicks

2-3 · away

Projected score

116-115

Miami Heat

1-4 · home

55% win NYwin MIA 45%

FavoriteNY

Projected margin1.6

Projected total231

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Miami Heat (1-4) host the New York Knicks (2-3) on Saturday, December 12 at 8:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Knicks a 55% chance to win and projects a 116-115 score (Knicks – Heat), about 231 total points. This season, the Heat are 0-3 at home and the Knicks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Heat and 2-3 for the Knicks (current streaks: Heat W1, Knicks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Jose Alvarado (Knicks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Heat 115 – 116 Knicks, a margin of about 1.6 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Knicks will be without Jose Alvarado.

The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs +3.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Knicks' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Heat

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIA -0.6 / NY +3.8 per game

-4.4

Home-court advantageHeat at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIA: 0 out, 1 questionable · NY: 1 out, 0 questionable

+0.6

Expected marginfor Heat

-1.6

Scenarios

Heat win by 10+

18%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Knicks win by 10+

25%

Stat comparison Current season

NYMIA

114.5

Points scored / game

118.6

110.0

Points allowed / game

119.2

42.2 %

Field goal %

45.3 %

35.9 %

3-point %

31.7 %

39.0

3-pointers attempted / game

37.8

75.8 %

Free throw %

71.7 %

48.2

Rebounds / game

42.8

26.8

Assists / game

27.0

7.2

Steals / game

8.4

4.4

Blocks / game

5.4

14.8

Turnovers / game

14.2

Players to watch

Knicks

Jalen BrunsonG · #1125.8pts / game

Tyler KolekG · #137.0assists

Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3213.8rebounds

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

106-100L

107-103L

111-102W

111-97W

133-127

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

Head-to-head

3 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

NY 55% · MIA 45%

ESPN BPI

NY 58% · MIA 42%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

NY		MIA
2-3	Record	1-4
114.5	Points scored / game	118.6
110.0	Points allowed / game	119.2
+3.8	Adjusted margin / game	-0.6
W2	Current streak	W1
2-3	Last 10 games	1-4
1-1 road	Home / road record	0-3 home
53-29 (+6.3)	Last season	43-39 (+2.3)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Knicks

Jose Alvarado GOut

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.