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Lakers vs Clippers prediction NBA · Monday, January 11

Mon, Jan 11 · 10:00 PM ETIntuit Dome · NBCSN, Spectrum Sports Net, Spectrum Sports Net +, ClipperVision

Los Angeles Lakers

4-1 · away

Projected score

114-111

LA Clippers

1-3 · home

60% win LALwin LAC 40%

FavoriteLAL

Projected margin3.1

Projected total225

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The LA Clippers (1-3) host the Los Angeles Lakers (4-1) on Monday, January 11 at 10:00 PM ET at Intuit Dome in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Lakers a 60% chance to win and projects a 114-111 score (Lakers – Clippers), about 225 total points. This season, the Clippers are 1-1 at home and the Lakers are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for the Clippers and 4-1 for the Lakers (current streaks: Clippers L3, Lakers W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Carr (Lakers), Adou Thiero (Lakers), Yanic Konan Niederhauser (Clippers), Max Strus (Clippers), Brandon Ingram (Clippers) and Bradley Beal (Clippers)…. Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Lakers are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Clippers 111 – 114 Lakers, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of the Lakers and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Clippers will be without Yanic Konan Niederhauser or Max Strus (and 3 others). The Lakers will be without Cameron Carr or Adou Thiero. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Clippers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Lakers' offense (118.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Clippers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)LAC +0.4 / LAL +3.5 per game

-3.1

Home-court advantageClippers at home

+2.3

InjuriesLAC: 5 out, 1 questionable · LAL: 2 out, 1 questionable

-2.4

Expected marginfor Clippers

-3.1

Scenarios

Clippers win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Lakers win by 10+

29%

Stat comparison Current season

LALLAC

118.4

Points scored / game

112.0

114.3

Points allowed / game

111.5

52.9 %

Field goal %

45.9 %

39.2 %

3-point %

39.0 %

36.2

3-pointers attempted / game

35.3

79.1 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

38.0

Rebounds / game

40.8

24.0

Assists / game

25.0

10.8

Steals / game

12.5

5.8

Blocks / game

4.5

16.6

Turnovers / game

23.0

Players to watch

Lakers

Luka DoncicG · #7736.0pts / game

Luka DoncicG · #778.2assists

Walker KesslerC · #148.2rebounds

Clippers

Darius GarlandG · #1021.5pts / game

Darius GarlandG · #106.5assists

Rui HachimuraF · #286.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

LAL

127-105W

125-117W

132-123L

136-129W

103-87

LAC

122-110W

121-96L

125-117L

108-101L

103-87

Head-to-head

LAL lead 2-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

LAL 60% · LAC 40%

ESPN BPI

LAL 70% · LAC 30%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

LAL		LAC
4-1	Record	1-3
118.4	Points scored / game	112.0
114.3	Points allowed / game	111.5
+3.5	Adjusted margin / game	+0.4
W1	Current streak	L3
4-1	Last 10 games	1-3
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
53-29 (+1.8)	Last season	42-40 (+1.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Lakers

Cameron Carr GOut

Adou Thiero FOut

Ziaire Williams FDay-To-Day

Injury report Clippers

Yanic Konan Niederhauser COut

Max Strus GOut

Brandon Ingram FOut

Bradley Beal GOut

Jordan Miller GOut

Rui Hachimura FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.