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Hawks vs Hornets prediction NBA · Tuesday, January 5

Tue, Jan 5 · 7:00 PM ETSpectrum Center · DAZN CHA
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · away
Projected score
112-113
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 · home
50% win ATLwin CHA 50%
FavoriteCHA
Projected margin0.1
Projected total225
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Charlotte Hornets (3-2) host the Atlanta Hawks (2-3) on Tuesday, January 5 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hornets a 50% chance to win and projects a 112-113 score (Hawks – Hornets), about 225 total points. This season, the Hornets are 2-1 at home and the Hawks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Hornets and 2-3 for the Hawks (current streaks: Hornets L1, Hawks L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Hawks played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks), Henri Veesaar (Hawks), Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets) and Kylan Boswell (Hornets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Hornets 113 – 112 Hawks, a margin of about 0.1 points in favor of the Hornets and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others). The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar.

  • The Hawks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hornets
Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHA +1.1 / ATL +2.7 per game
-1.6
Home-court advantageHornets at home
+2.3
Back-to-backHawks played yesterday
+1.6
InjuriesCHA: 4 out, 1 questionable · ATL: 2 out, 0 questionable
-2.2
Expected marginfor Hornets
+0.1

Scenarios

Hornets win by 10+
22%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Hawks win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison Current season

ATLCHA
119.0
Points scored / game
111.6
115.8
Points allowed / game
110.3
46.9 %
Field goal %
41.7 %
34.8 %
3-point %
30.6 %
41.4
3-pointers attempted / game
43.2
72.8 %
Free throw %
85.2 %
41.4
Rebounds / game
47.4
32.2
Assists / game
20.6
10.2
Steals / game
6.8
3.6
Blocks / game
5.2
14.0
Turnovers / game
19.0

Players to watch

Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds
Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117
CHA
WBKN110-103LATL128-81WMIA115-110WWSH110-103LDET97-89

Head-to-head

ATL lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 23ATL128 - 81CHANov 20CHAupcomingATLDec 26CHAupcomingATLJan 5ATLthis gameCHA

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
ATL 50% · CHA 50%
ESPN BPI
ATL 55% · CHA 45%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

ATLCHA
2-3Record3-2
119.0Points scored / game111.6
115.8Points allowed / game110.3
+2.7Adjusted margin / game+1.1
L3Current streakL1
2-3Last 10 games3-2
2-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
46-36 (+2.4)Last season44-38 (+4.8)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut
Coby White GOut
Grant Williams FOut
Kylan Boswell GOut
Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.