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Hornets vs Hawks prediction NBA · Saturday, December 26

Sat, Dec 26 · 3:30 PM ETState Farm Arena
Charlotte Hornets
Charlotte Hornets
3-2 · away
Projected score
110-116
Atlanta Hawks
Atlanta Hawks
2-3 · home
31% win CHAwin ATL 69%
FavoriteATL
Projected margin6.1
Projected total226
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Atlanta Hawks (2-3) host the Charlotte Hornets (3-2) on Saturday, December 26 at 3:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Hawks a 69% chance to win and projects a 110-116 score (Hornets – Hawks), about 226 total points. This season, the Hawks are 0-2 at home and the Hornets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Hawks and 3-2 for the Hornets (current streaks: Hawks L3, Hornets L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kon Knueppel (Hornets), Coby White (Hornets), Grant Williams (Hornets), Kylan Boswell (Hornets), Mouhamed Gueye (Hawks) and Henri Veesaar (Hawks). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Hawks are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hawks 116 – 110 Hornets, a margin of about 6.1 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Hawks will be without Mouhamed Gueye or Henri Veesaar. The Hornets will be without Kon Knueppel or Coby White (and 2 others).

  • The Hornets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Hawks' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Hornets' defense allows clearly fewer points (110.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hawks
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ATL +2.7 / CHA +1.1 per game
+1.6
Home-court advantageHawks at home
+2.3
InjuriesATL: 2 out, 0 questionable · CHA: 4 out, 1 questionable
+2.2
Expected marginfor Hawks
+6.1

Scenarios

Hawks win by 10+
38%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Hornets win by 10+
10%

Stat comparison Current season

CHAATL
111.6
Points scored / game
119.0
110.3
Points allowed / game
115.8
41.7 %
Field goal %
46.9 %
30.6 %
3-point %
34.8 %
43.2
3-pointers attempted / game
41.4
85.2 %
Free throw %
72.8 %
47.4
Rebounds / game
41.4
20.6
Assists / game
32.2
6.8
Steals / game
10.2
5.2
Blocks / game
3.6
19.0
Turnovers / game
14.0

Players to watch

Hornets
Brandon MillerF · #2425.6pts / game
Dennis SchroderG · #174.8assists
Moussa DiabateF · #149.4rebounds
Hawks
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerG · #719.6pts / game
Jalen JohnsonF · #18.8assists
Jalen JohnsonF · #19.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
CHA
WBKN110-103LATL128-81WMIA115-110WWSH110-103LDET97-89
ATL
WORL132-125WCHA128-81LHOU121-114LHOU120-110LMIA129-117

Head-to-head

ATL lead 1-0 this season.

Oct 23ATL128 - 81CHANov 20CHAupcomingATLDec 26CHAthis gameATLJan 5ATLupcomingCHA

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog
CHA 31% · ATL 69%
ESPN BPI
CHA 34% · ATL 66%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHAATL
3-2Record2-3
111.6Points scored / game119.0
110.3Points allowed / game115.8
+1.1Adjusted margin / game+2.7
L1Current streakL3
3-2Last 10 games2-3
1-1 roadHome / road record0-2 home
44-38 (+4.8)Last season46-36 (+2.4)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Charlotte Hornets Injury report Hornets

Kon Knueppel GOut
Coby White GOut
Grant Williams FOut
Kylan Boswell GOut
Dennis Schroder GDay-To-Day

Atlanta Hawks Injury report Hawks

Mouhamed Gueye FOut
Henri Veesaar COut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.