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Celtics vs Bulls prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 30

Wed, Dec 30 · 8:00 PM ETUnited Center

Boston Celtics

3-1 · away

Projected score

122-107

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · home

88% win BOSwin CHI 12%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin14.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Chicago Bulls (1-4) host the Boston Celtics (3-1) on Wednesday, December 30 at 8:00 PM ET at United Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 88% chance to win and projects a 122-107 score (Celtics – Bulls), about 229 total points. This season, the Bulls are 0-2 at home and the Celtics are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-4 for the Bulls and 3-1 for the Celtics (current streaks: Bulls L3, Celtics W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 16% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Bulls played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Devin Carter (Celtics), Patrick Williams (Bulls) and Nic Claxton (Bulls). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Bulls 107 – 122 Celtics, a margin of about 14.7 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Bulls played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.2 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Bulls

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CHI -7.2 / BOS +6.6 per game

-13.8

Home-court advantageBulls at home

+2.3

Back-to-backBulls played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesCHI: 2 out, 2 questionable · BOS: 1 out, 0 questionable

-1.6

Expected marginfor Bulls

-14.7

Scenarios

Bulls win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

16%

Celtics win by 10+

65%

Stat comparison Current season

BOSCHI

116.1

Points scored / game

115.6

108.3

Points allowed / game

124.1

46.5 %

Field goal %

42.1 %

38.6 %

3-point %

27.6 %

41.5

3-pointers attempted / game

42.0

76.0 %

Free throw %

78.6 %

44.3

Rebounds / game

44.8

27.8

Assists / game

24.4

9.0

Steals / game

9.0

3.8

Blocks / game

4.8

15.5

Turnovers / game

17.8

Players to watch

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

Head-to-head

BOS lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

BOS 88% · CHI 12%

ESPN BPI

BOS 80% · CHI 20%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

BOS		CHI
3-1	Record	1-4
116.1	Points scored / game	115.6
108.3	Points allowed / game	124.1
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-7.2
W3	Current streak	L3
3-1	Last 10 games	1-4
0-1 road	Home / road record	0-2 home
56-26 (+7.7)	Last season	31-51 (-5.2)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.