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Bulls vs Celtics prediction NBA · Friday, October 30

Fri, Oct 30 · 7:30 PM ETTD Garden · NBA League Pass

Chicago Bulls

1-4 · away

Projected score

106-124

Boston Celtics

3-1 · home

8% win CHIwin BOS 92%

FavoriteBOS

Projected margin17.7

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Boston Celtics (3-1) host the Chicago Bulls (1-4) on Friday, October 30 at 7:30 PM ET at TD Garden in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Celtics a 92% chance to win and projects a 106-124 score (Bulls – Celtics), about 231 total points. This season, the Celtics are 3-0 at home and the Bulls are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Celtics and 1-4 for the Bulls (current streaks: Celtics W3, Bulls L3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 12% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Patrick Williams (Bulls), Nic Claxton (Bulls) and Devin Carter (Celtics). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Celtics start with a clear edge. The model projects Celtics 124 – 106 Bulls, a margin of about 17.7 points in favor of the Celtics and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Celtics will be without Devin Carter. The Bulls will be without Patrick Williams or Nic Claxton. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -7.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Bulls need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Celtics' defense allows clearly fewer points (108.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Celtics

Team strength (adjusted point differential)BOS +6.6 / CHI -7.2 per game

+13.8

Home-court advantageCeltics at home

+2.3

InjuriesBOS: 1 out, 0 questionable · CHI: 2 out, 2 questionable

+1.6

Expected marginfor Celtics

+17.7

Scenarios

Celtics win by 10+

73%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

12%

Bulls win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

CHIBOS

115.6

Points scored / game

116.1

124.1

Points allowed / game

108.3

42.1 %

Field goal %

46.5 %

27.6 %

3-point %

38.6 %

42.0

3-pointers attempted / game

41.5

78.6 %

Free throw %

76.0 %

44.8

Rebounds / game

44.3

24.4

Assists / game

27.8

9.0

Steals / game

9.0

4.8

Blocks / game

3.8

17.8

Turnovers / game

15.5

Players to watch

Bulls

Norman PowellG · #2421.6pts / game

Josh GiddeyG · #38.0assists

Jalen SmithF · #258.2rebounds

Celtics

Jayson TatumF · #028.0pts / game

Jayson TatumF · #08.0assists

Jayson TatumF · #06.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CHI

135-92W

132-125L

124-120L

134-99L

133-127

BOS

125-120 OTL DET

121-113W

107-103W

134-99W

125-124 OT

Head-to-head

BOS lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CHI 8% · BOS 92%

ESPN BPI

CHI 14% · BOS 86%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CHI		BOS
1-4	Record	3-1
115.6	Points scored / game	116.1
124.1	Points allowed / game	108.3
-7.2	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
L3	Current streak	W3
1-4	Last 10 games	3-1
1-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
31-51 (-5.2)	Last season	56-26 (+7.7)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Bulls

Patrick Williams FOut

Nic Claxton COut

Jalen Smith FDay-To-Day

Tobe Awaka FDay-To-Day

Injury report Celtics

Devin Carter GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.