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Timberwolves vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Monday, December 28

Mon, Dec 28 · 10:30 PM ETBall Arena · NBC, DAZN MIN

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · away

Projected score

116-114

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · home

57% win MINwin DEN 43%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin2.1

Projected total230

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Monday, December 28 at 10:30 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 57% chance to win and projects a 116-114 score (Timberwolves – Nuggets), about 230 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Nuggets and the Timberwolves played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Nuggets 114 – 116 Timberwolves, a margin of about 2.1 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Nuggets and the Timberwolves played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Nuggets

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DEN +2.6 / MIN +5.2 per game

-2.6

Home-court advantageNuggets at home

+2.3

InjuriesDEN: 4 out, 0 questionable · MIN: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.8

Expected marginfor Nuggets

-2.1

Scenarios

Nuggets win by 10+

17%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

31%

Timberwolves win by 10+

26%

Stat comparison Current season

MINDEN

118.7

Points scored / game

119.2

112.6

Points allowed / game

116.2

47.3 %

Field goal %

45.8 %

38.4 %

3-point %

32.8 %

40.6

3-pointers attempted / game

34.3

62.7 %

Free throw %

79.6 %

51.6

Rebounds / game

44.5

27.0

Assists / game

26.0

9.2

Steals / game

10.0

4.4

Blocks / game

4.8

16.2

Turnovers / game

15.3

Players to watch

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIN 57% · DEN 43%

ESPN BPI

MIN 53% · DEN 47%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

MIN		DEN
3-2	Record	2-2
118.7	Points scored / game	119.2
112.6	Points allowed / game	116.2
+5.2	Adjusted margin / game	+2.6
L2	Current streak	W1
3-2	Last 10 games	2-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
49-33 (+3.4)	Last season	54-28 (+5.2)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.