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Nuggets vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Wednesday, January 27

Wed, Jan 27 · 9:30 PM ETTarget Center · ESPN

Denver Nuggets

2-2 · away

Projected score

112-119

Minnesota Timberwolves

3-2 · home

30% win DENwin MIN 70%

FavoriteMIN

Projected margin6.7

Projected total231

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Wednesday, January 27 at 9:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 70% chance to win and projects a 112-119 score (Nuggets – Timberwolves), about 231 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 27% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Timberwolves, but the Nuggets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Timberwolves 119 – 112 Nuggets, a margin of about 6.7 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The Nuggets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves

Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +5.2 / DEN +2.6 per game

+2.6

Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home

+2.3

InjuriesMIN: 2 out, 0 questionable · DEN: 4 out, 0 questionable

+1.8

Expected marginfor Timberwolves

+6.7

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+

39%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Nuggets win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DENMIN

119.2

Points scored / game

118.7

116.2

Points allowed / game

112.6

45.8 %

Field goal %

47.3 %

32.8 %

3-point %

38.4 %

34.3

3-pointers attempted / game

40.6

79.6 %

Free throw %

62.7 %

44.5

Rebounds / game

51.6

26.0

Assists / game

27.0

10.0

Steals / game

9.2

4.8

Blocks / game

4.4

15.3

Turnovers / game

16.2

Players to watch

Nuggets

Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game

Nikola JokicC · #159.0assists

Nikola JokicC · #1510.5rebounds

Timberwolves

Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game

LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists

Rudy GobertC · #2712.2rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DEN

121-106L

96-84W

141-135 OTL

134-114W

104-91

MIN

131-106W

115-93W

117-94L

127-125 OTL

119-114

Head-to-head

4 meetings scheduled this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DEN 30% · MIN 70%

ESPN BPI

DEN 35% · MIN 65%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DEN		MIN
2-2	Record	3-2
119.2	Points scored / game	118.7
116.2	Points allowed / game	112.6
+2.6	Adjusted margin / game	+5.2
W1	Current streak	L2
2-2	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
54-28 (+5.2)	Last season	49-33 (+3.4)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Nuggets

Cameron Johnson FOut

Spencer Jones FOut

Alpha Diallo FOut

Julian Strawther GOut

Injury report Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards GOut

Donte DiVincenzo GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.