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Wizards vs Cavaliers prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27

Sun, Dec 27 · 6:00 PM ETRocket Arena · DAZN CLE, MNMT

Washington Wizards

2-3 · away

Projected score

108-125

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · home

9% win WSHwin CLE 91%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin16.8

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) host the Washington Wizards (2-3) on Sunday, December 27 at 6:00 PM ET at Rocket Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 91% chance to win and projects a 108-125 score (Wizards – Cavaliers), about 232 total points. This season, the Cavaliers are 3-0 at home and the Wizards are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Cavaliers and 2-3 for the Wizards (current streaks: Cavaliers W3, Wizards L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 13% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards), Jamir Watkins (Wizards) and Meleek Thomas (Cavaliers). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers start with a clear edge. The model projects Cavaliers 125 – 108 Wizards, a margin of about 16.8 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Cavaliers will be without Meleek Thomas. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+3.0 vs -7.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Cavaliers

Team strength (adjusted point differential)CLE +3.0 / WSH -7.7 per game

+10.8

Home-court advantageCavaliers at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

+1.6

InjuriesCLE: 1 out, 0 questionable · WSH: 3 out, 1 questionable

+2.2

Expected marginfor Cavaliers

+16.8

Scenarios

Cavaliers win by 10+

71%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

13%

Wizards win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

WSHCLE

113.1

Points scored / game

119.6

122.2

Points allowed / game

116.0

48.0 %

Field goal %

46.8 %

28.5 %

3-point %

36.7 %

31.6

3-pointers attempted / game

37.5

83.1 %

Free throw %

79.3 %

40.0

Rebounds / game

47.0

25.8

Assists / game

26.3

7.4

Steals / game

8.8

5.6

Blocks / game

7.5

13.6

Turnovers / game

17.3

Players to watch

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

Head-to-head

CLE lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

WSH 9% · CLE 91%

ESPN BPI

WSH 21% · CLE 79%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

WSH		CLE
2-3	Record	3-1
113.1	Points scored / game	119.6
122.2	Points allowed / game	116.0
-7.7	Adjusted margin / game	+3.0
L2	Current streak	W3
2-3	Last 10 games	3-1
1-2 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
17-65 (-12.0)	Last season	52-30 (+4.1)
Yes	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.