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Cavaliers vs Wizards prediction NBA · Wednesday, December 23

Wed, Dec 23 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT

Cleveland Cavaliers

3-1 · away

Projected score

122-110

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

84% win CLEwin WSH 16%

FavoriteCLE

Projected margin12.4

Projected total232

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Cleveland Cavaliers (3-1) on Wednesday, December 23 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Cavaliers a 84% chance to win and projects a 122-110 score (Cavaliers – Wizards), about 232 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Cavaliers are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-1 for the Cavaliers (current streaks: Wizards L2, Cavaliers W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 19% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Wizards played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

The Cavaliers start with a clear edge. The model projects Wizards 110 – 122 Cavaliers, a margin of about 12.4 points in favor of the Cavaliers and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Wizards played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Cavaliers' offense (119.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Cavaliers' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / CLE +3.0 per game

-10.8

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

Back-to-backWizards played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · CLE: 0 out, 2 questionable

-2.4

Expected marginfor Wizards

-12.4

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

19%

Cavaliers win by 10+

58%

Stat comparison Current season

CLEWSH

119.6

Points scored / game

113.1

116.0

Points allowed / game

122.2

46.8 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

36.7 %

3-point %

28.5 %

37.5

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

79.3 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

47.0

Rebounds / game

40.0

26.3

Assists / game

25.8

8.8

Steals / game

7.4

7.5

Blocks / game

5.6

17.3

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Cavaliers

Donovan MitchellG · #4524.8pts / game

James HardenG · #16.8assists

Evan MobleyC · #410.0rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

CLE

132-116L

114-106W

125-121W

127-125 OTW WSH

121-111

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

CLE lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

CLE 84% · WSH 16%

ESPN BPI

CLE 68% · WSH 32%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

CLE		WSH
3-1	Record	2-3
119.6	Points scored / game	113.1
116.0	Points allowed / game	122.2
+3.0	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W3	Current streak	L2
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
0-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
52-30 (+4.1)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Cavaliers

Meleek Thomas GDay-To-Day

Jaylon Tyson GDay-To-Day

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.