Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Raptors vs Wizards prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 22

Tue, Dec 22 · 7:00 PM ETCapital One Arena · MNMT

Toronto Raptors

3-1 · away

Projected score

120-108

Washington Wizards

2-3 · home

82% win TORwin WSH 18%

FavoriteTOR

Projected margin11.7

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Washington Wizards (2-3) host the Toronto Raptors (3-1) on Tuesday, December 22 at 7:00 PM ET at Capital One Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Raptors a 82% chance to win and projects a 120-108 score (Raptors – Wizards), about 228 total points. This season, the Wizards are 1-1 at home and the Raptors are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Wizards and 3-1 for the Raptors (current streaks: Wizards L2, Raptors W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kawhi Leonard (Raptors), Nate Bittle (Raptors), Justin Champagnie (Wizards), Tristan Vukcevic (Wizards) and Jamir Watkins (Wizards). Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Raptors dominate this matchup. The model projects Wizards 108 – 120 Raptors, a margin of about 11.7 points in favor of the Raptors and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Wizards will be without Justin Champagnie or Tristan Vukcevic (and 1 other). The Raptors will be without Kawhi Leonard or Nate Bittle. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-7.7 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Wizards need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Raptors' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.5 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Wizards

Team strength (adjusted point differential)WSH -7.7 / TOR +5.0 per game

-12.7

Home-court advantageWizards at home

+2.3

InjuriesWSH: 3 out, 1 questionable · TOR: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.3

Expected marginfor Wizards

-11.7

Scenarios

Wizards win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Raptors win by 10+

55%

Stat comparison Current season

TORWSH

115.4

Points scored / game

113.1

109.5

Points allowed / game

122.2

44.2 %

Field goal %

48.0 %

30.4 %

3-point %

28.5 %

34.5

3-pointers attempted / game

31.6

79.0 %

Free throw %

83.1 %

45.8

Rebounds / game

40.0

27.3

Assists / game

25.8

14.3

Steals / game

7.4

5.5

Blocks / game

5.6

14.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Raptors

RJ BarrettF · #922.0pts / game

Immanuel QuickleyG · #55.5assists

Scottie BarnesF · #47.2rebounds

Wizards

Anthony DavisF · #2321.8pts / game

Trae YoungG · #310.4assists

Anthony DavisF · #238.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

TOR

129-125W

135-92W

112-102L

117-94W

129-99

WSH

128-116L

112-102W

124-120L

110-103L

121-111

Head-to-head

TOR lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

TOR 82% · WSH 18%

ESPN BPI

TOR 71% · WSH 29%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

TOR		WSH
3-1	Record	2-3
115.4	Points scored / game	113.1
109.5	Points allowed / game	122.2
+5.0	Adjusted margin / game	-7.7
W1	Current streak	L2
3-1	Last 10 games	2-3
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
46-36 (+2.8)	Last season	17-65 (-12.0)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Raptors

Kawhi Leonard FOut

Nate Bittle COut

Injury report Wizards

Justin Champagnie FOut

Tristan Vukcevic FOut

Jamir Watkins GOut

Tre Johnson GDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.